DOGE: IRS (Internal Revenue Service)
Important new analysis from @NatashaRSarin and @The_Budget_Lab suggest to me that DOGE's IRS cuts could easily cost the federal government close to a trillion dollars over the next decade that may well exceed any cuts in spending that prove feasible and judiciously sustainable.
(budgetlab.yale.edu)
@SecScottBessent has a moral obligation to protect the nation’s tax collection system from this assault.
Sarin and colleagues suggest a range from $395 billion to $2.4 trillion for the revenue cost of the IRS cuts. After studying their methodologies, a reasonable estimate is somewhere in between. $395B seems very conservative to me based on earlier research I did with Sarin, as well as recent academic research by @nhendren82, @bsprungkeyser and coauthors highlighting that when you catch an individual taking a bogus home office deduction, for example, you get more revenue this year and in subsequent years as they don’t repeat their error:
(QJE, “A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution,” )
(budgetlab.yale.edu)
@SecScottBessent has a moral obligation to protect the nation’s tax collection system from this assault.
Sarin and colleagues suggest a range from $395 billion to $2.4 trillion for the revenue cost of the IRS cuts. After studying their methodologies, a reasonable estimate is somewhere in between. $395B seems very conservative to me based on earlier research I did with Sarin, as well as recent academic research by @nhendren82, @bsprungkeyser and coauthors highlighting that when you catch an individual taking a bogus home office deduction, for example, you get more revenue this year and in subsequent years as they don’t repeat their error:
(QJE, “A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution,” )