The key chart right now: Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers. This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified. Basically what normally happens is investors think “Stocks are too risky now, so let’s shift into US bonds and the dollar, which are a safer bet because America is a stable and well-run country with a good handle on its deficit and inflation.” This time? Not so much. Striking stat from @kellycnbc.bsky.social on this: The rise in treasury yields since Trump’s tariffs were announced leads to an increase in US debt interest payments that is larger than all the DOGE savings.
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